Turkish Straits: A vital global maritime corridor for energy and grain trade

By arseniotoledo // 2025-01-20

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The Turkish Straits, comprising the Bosphorus and Dardanelles, are a vital global maritime corridor for energy and grain trade, handling four percent of crude oil and significant grain shipments.
Turkey’s control of the straits has enabled it to broker key agreements, such as the Ukraine-Russia grain deal, highlighting its strategic role in global commerce.
The ongoing Ukraine conflict has amplified the straits’ importance, with resumed grain shipments in 2022 reducing global food prices by 20 percent, while also introducing risks like floating mines and high insurance costs.
Calls to revise the 1936 Montreux Convention and Turkey’s proposed Istanbul Canal project threaten to disrupt the straits’ governance and regional power dynamics.
The Istanbul Canal, a $25 billion project, could allow Turkey to bypass the Montreux Convention, raising concerns about unilateral regulation and geopolitical tensions in the Black Sea region.

The Turkish Straits, a critical maritime corridor linking the Black Sea to the Mediterranean, have emerged as a focal point of global geopolitical tensions and economic stability. Amid ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, the strategic importance of these waterways – comprising the Bosphorus and Dardanelles – has been thrust into the spotlight. With approximately four percent of the world’s crude oil trade and a significant portion of global grain shipments passing through these straits, their security and efficiency are vital to sustaining international trade and energy flows. Turkey, which controls the straits, has leveraged its position to broker deals like the Ukraine-Russia grain agreement, underscoring its pivotal role in global commerce. However, rising geopolitical risks, calls for revising the 1936 Montreux Convention and ambitious infrastructure projects like the Istanbul Canal threaten to disrupt the delicate balance governing these waters. The Turkish Straits serve as a linchpin for global trade, particularly for energy and agricultural commodities. In 2019, more than 40,000 vessels transported nearly 650 million tons of cargo through these waters, reaffirming their status as one of the world’s busiest maritime trade corridors. The straits are especially critical for energy exports from the Caspian region and the Middle East, as well as for grain shipments from Ukraine and Russia. Prior to the conflict in Ukraine, the region accounted for 28 percent of global nitrogenous fertilizer exports and 50 percent of the world’s sunflower oil production. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has further highlighted the straits’ importance. When Ukraine was allowed to resume grain shipments via the Black Sea in 2022, global food prices dropped by nearly 20 percent, demonstrating the macroeconomic impact of these waterways. However, the conflict has also introduced significant risks, including floating mines and skyrocketing insurance premiums for Black Sea shipping, which now exceed 10 percent of hull values. Since 1936, the Montreux Convention has governed the passage of military and commercial vessels through the Turkish Straits, ensuring their status as an international waterway. The treaty limits the presence of non-littoral states' naval vessels in the Black Sea and grants Turkey the authority to close the straits during wartime. However, recent calls from Turkish and Russian policymakers to revise the convention have raised concerns about its future. Russia, in particular, has sought to reinterpret the convention since its annexation of Crimea in 2014. Some Russian defense planners have proposed reducing the length of stay for non-littoral states’ vessels in the Black Sea, while others have argued that restrictions apply only to non-littoral states. Meanwhile, Turkey has floated the idea of a regional ownership model for the straits under the Black Sea Economic Cooperation, which could tighten restrictions on non-littoral states while loosening them for Black Sea neighbors.

Turkey proposing new canal that would bypass the straits

Turkey's proposed $25 billion Istanbul Canal project adds another layer of complexity to the straits' future. The 45-kilometer (28 miles) waterway, designed to bypass the Bosphorus, has been touted as a solution to congestion and environmental risks. However, critics argue that the canal’s primary purpose is to circumvent the Montreux Convention, allowing Turkey to unilaterally regulate traffic and potentially alter the balance of power in the Black Sea region. (Related: Geopolitical analyst warns of economic chaos should Iran shut down Strait of Hormuz.) Turkish officials have claimed that the canal, as an artificial waterway, would not be subject to the convention. This interpretation could enable Turkey to restrict or prioritize access to certain vessels. The project has also faced domestic opposition, with over 72 percent of Istanbul residents opposing it, according to a 2019 poll. For the United States, maintaining open diplomatic channels with Turkey and other Black Sea littoral states is crucial. As Yusuf Can, Middle East Program Coordinator for the Wilson Center, noted, "A comprehensive approach that integrates diplomatic efforts, infrastructure investments and strengthened alliances is essential to counterbalance Russia's and China's expanding presence in the region." More related stories can be found at SupplyChainWarning.com. Watch this video warning about how vulnerabilities around chokepoints could trigger a global financial reset. This video is from the ADAPT2030 | Civilization Cycle channel on Brighteon.com.

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Turkey proposing new canal that would bypass the straits

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