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A prophecy for Kabul: Pakistan warns the Taliban that the militants it shelters may come for its throne

By ljdevon // 2026-10-14

Pakistan’s top diplomat has issued what sounds less like a request than a prophecy, and the rulers in Kabul would be wise to hear the echo of history in it. On Monday, Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar urged Afghanistan’s Taliban government to stop militants from using Afghan soil as a launchpad against Pakistan, warning that the same armed factions could one day turn their guns on their hosts. The plea lands as the two former allies grind through weeks of airstrikes and border skirmishes, with civilians absorbing the worst of it. If Kabul acts, a volatile frontier could finally cool. If it refuses, the region faces a slow-burning conflict with no visible exit. Key points:

• Dar urged the Taliban to stop militants from attacking Pakistan from Afghan territory and warned the groups could eventually threaten Taliban rule.
• Pakistan says more than 2,800 militant attacks since January have killed or wounded about 3,000 people.
• The Taliban deny harboring militants and accuse Islamabad of choosing propaganda over solutions.
• UN figures show more than 1,100 civilian deaths and injuries from cross-border violence in Afghanistan this year.
• Compliance could reopen trade and transit corridors, but a crackdown carries risks for the Taliban’s own cohesion.

A warning from an old patron

Dar spoke at a think tank event broadcast on Pakistani television, framing his message as a reminder rather than a threat. He said he had already delivered the warning to Afghan Prime Minister Mullah Mohammad Hasan Akhund during a July 2025 visit to Kabul. “I politely reminded him that if the Afghan authorities failed to take appropriate action against terrorist groups operating from their territory, the day would come when these very groups would threaten his government as well,” Dar said. He did not explain why he believed militants would turn on the Taliban, and he gave no account of Akhund’s response. Kabul’s answer came through spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid, who rejected the accusations on X and accused Pakistani officials of undermining negotiations in favor of propaganda. “Blaming Afghanistan for its own failures by Pakistani officials is no solution to any problem,” Mujahid wrote. Pakistan’s Information Ministry countered that Islamabad remains committed to dialogue but needs verifiable action against militant sanctuaries and support networks. The numbers driving Islamabad’s alarm are stark. Pakistan says more than 2,800 militant attacks since January have killed or wounded about 3,000 people. Information Minister Attaullah Tarar, citing UN and independent assessments, said Afghanistan hosts more than 6,000 fighters of the Pakistani Taliban, known as Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, or TTP, and more than 20,000 militants overall. Kabul has repeatedly denied sheltering them. The grievance has deep roots. The TTP is separate from, yet closely allied with, the Afghan Taliban, a bond forged during the long insurgency against American-led forces. Pakistan’s intelligence services were once counted among the Afghan Taliban’s most dependable patrons, which gives the present quarrel the bitter flavor of a family feud. Islamabad answered with a fence along the roughly 2,600-kilometer (1,600-mile) border, begun in 2017 and now nearly 95 percent complete, a concrete admission that the frontier stopped behaving like a line on a map long ago.

Civilians in the crossfire

Diplomacy has not kept pace with the bloodshed. According to FDD’s Long War Journal, Pakistan carried out another round of airstrikes in Afghanistan last week, pushing the conflict into its third week. The United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan said those strikes killed 10 civilians, most of them children, and that cross-border violence has killed or injured more than 1,100 civilians in Afghanistan this year. Accusations are flying in both directions. On Oct. 1, Pakistan’s military spokesman claimed the Taliban’s governor of Kandahar hosted a meeting of the Baloch Liberation Army, al-Qaida in the Indian Subcontinent and the Hafiz Gul Bahadur group. A day later, a Taliban police chief in Nuristan accused Pakistan of sending 300 to 400 fighters from an anti-Taliban resistance group into Afghanistan. Earlier tolls add context. The Associated Press, reporting on a UN assessment in July, said fighting since October killed nearly 500 civilians in Afghanistan and wounded more than 1,000 through June, including 22 people killed in two successive strikes on a residential building in Paktia province. Pakistan told the UN its strikes hit only identified terrorist hideouts. The UN mission can only monitor Afghanistan, and Pakistan has offered no overall figure for civilian harm on its side. What happens if the Taliban follows through? The best case is a quieter frontier, reopened commerce and revived momentum for the Pakistan-to-Central Asia railway that Dar says Islamabad has pursued through Afghanistan. The risk is internal. Because the TTP is closely allied with the Taliban, a crackdown could strain loyalties within Kabul’s own ranks and push disaffected fighters toward rival extremist groups - the very scenario Dar’s warning gestures toward, though he offered no evidence for it. If the Taliban refuses, airstrikes will likely continue, civilian casualties will keep climbing, and neighbors that depend on stable transit routes will bear the cost. Both capitals insist they want stability. Verifiable action, not rhetoric, will decide whether Dar’s warning becomes a diplomatic opening or a prophecy fulfilled. Sources include: Siasat.com FDD.org Local10.com

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