AI Data Center Boom Drives 44% Increase in Gas-Fired Power Capacity, Analysis Says

By ivagreene // 2026-10-16

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The Environment America Research and Policy Center released an analysis finding that building artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure will increase gas-fired generator capacity by 44% over the next four years, according to the report first flagged by Electrek [1]. Energy companies plan to raise gas-fired electrical capacity by up to 44% by 2030 across the United States, according to the analysis [2]. The report attributes the projected increase to surging electricity demand from data centers. Electrek reported that the planned expansion of gas capacity exceeds the combined output of every U.S. state except Texas, California and Florida. No final determination has been made on how many of the planned gas facilities will be built.

Planned Gas Expansion Exceeds Most State Outputs

As of 2022, the United States had nearly 1,000 gas-fired plants, which was already more than the next nine countries combined [3]. Energy developers have shifted from projects such as offshore wind farms toward gas- and coal-powered facilities [3]. The report states that the shift has accelerated under the returning administration of President Donald Trump [4]. Industry data points to the scale of the buildout. Texas approved the largest U.S. air pollution permit for a 7.65-gigawatt natural gas and data center complex, and the state saw nearly 58 gigawatts of gas plant projects announced in 2025 alone, driven almost entirely by speculative data center demand, according to NaturalNews.com [5]. U.S. companies are projected to spend $50 billion on coal- and natural gas-fired power generation in 2025, exceeding China's investment in the same fuels by $3 billion, according to the International Energy Agency as quoted by the Financial Times [6].

Planned Wind Capacity Declines as Gas Projects Advance

Separate analyses have reached similar conclusions about the pace of renewable additions. Industry reports and grid operator data indicate that the rapid expansion of AI computing and data centers is driving electricity demand at a pace that renewable energy generation has not matched, and analysts project that U.S. data center electricity consumption could more than double by 2030 [7]. The behind-the-meter approach is drawing growing attention from analysts. Goldman Sachs has projected that behind-the-meter power could supply 25% of all data centers by 2030 [8]. A separate report by the environmental law organization Earthjustice describes a rush to build power plants solely to power data centers that are predominantly gas-powered, stating that these plants are evading regulations [9].

Policy Debate Centers on Reliability, Emissions, Energy Costs

Supporters of expanded gas generation have said the plants provide reliable power for data centers and other electricity users, according to public statements from industry representatives. Some policy analysts who dispute climate change narratives have said that restrictions on domestic energy production reduce competitiveness in energy-intensive sectors such as AI and data centers, according to public statements. Environment America and other groups have said the emissions from additional gas plants pose environmental and public health risks. A report published by Children's Health Defense states that air pollution from AI data centers may affect children's developing brains and lungs [10]. Air pollution from data centers could increase healthcare costs by almost $21 billion by 2028, contributing to roughly 600,000 asthma cases and 1,300 premature deaths, according to a separate report [11]. State and federal policymakers are weighing new rules. California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) signed seven data center bills into law, with measures ranging from making data centers pay their share of increasing electricity costs to providing local governments with water usage data [12]. Texas' grid operator, meanwhile, moved from directions for data centers to pay for their own grid upgrades to a freeze on all new permits after its large-load queue reached 474 gigawatts by this June, about 90% of it data centers [13].

Conclusion: Gas Capacity Additions Projected Through 2030

That growth is tied directly to the electricity demands of the AI data center buildout [7]. Market analysts have identified infrastructure constraints as a defining theme of the buildout. UBS's energy and resources expert Catherine Gordon highlighted "AI Infrastructure Constraints Emerge As Next Leg Of The Trade" in a note to clients [14]. The Electric Power Research Institute has said data centers will represent up to 17% of U.S. electricity demand in 2030 and as much as 20% in 2035 [15].

References

The AI Data Center Boom Is Causing a Gigantic Spike in Smog-Spewing Gas .... https://dnyuz.com/2026/10/11/the-ai-data-center-boom-is-causing-a-gigantic-spike-in-smog-spewing-gas-power-plants/
The AI Data Center Boom Is Causing a Gigantic Spike in .... https://futurism.com/future-society/ai-data-center-boom-smog-spewing-gas-power
The AI Data Center Boom Is Causing a Gigantic Spike in Smog-Spewing Gas .... https://article.wn.com/view/2026/10/11/The_AI_Data_Center_Boom_Is_Causing_a_Gigantic_Spike_in_SmogS/
The AI Data Center Boom Is Causing a Gigantic Spike in Smog-Spewing Gas .... https://www.newsbreak.com/news/4939857786137-the-ai-data-center-boom-is-causing-a-gigantic-spike-in-smog-spewing-gas-power-plants
Texas approves nations largest power permit for AI driven gas plant and data center complex - NaturalNews.com, February 03, 2026.
U.S. Power Spending on Coal and Gas Set to Surpass China as Data Center Demand Drives $50 Billion Investment - NaturalNews.com, July 04, 2026.
Renewable Energy Growth Trails Data Center Demand, Analysts Say - NaturalNews.com, July 29, 2026.
Bring Your Own Power Plant: Goldman Now Sees Behind-The-Meter Powering 25% Of All Data Centers By 2030. https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bring-your-own-power-plant-goldman-now-sees-behind-meter-powering-25-all-data-centers-2030
The AI Gas Rush: Risks and Implications of "Bring Your Own Power". https://earthjustice.org/feature/data-center-byop-energy-report
Report Links AI Data Center Air Pollution to Risks for Children's Developing Brains and Lungs - NaturalNews.com, September 21, 2026.
New Report Reveals Data Center Backup Generators Pollute Like Power Plants, Endanger Health. https://www.naturalnews.com/2026-09-30-report-data-center-backup-generators-endanger-health.html
Newsom signs 7 data center bills as California ramps up regulations. https://justthenews.com/nation/states/center-square/newsom-signs-data-center-bills-state-ramps-regulations?utm_source=justthenews.com&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=external-news-aggregators
Why Texas Is Making Data Centers Wait. https://www.zerohedge.com/ai/why-texas-making-data-centers-wait
UBS Identifies "The Next Leg Of The AI Trade". https://www.zerohedge.com/ai/ubs-identifies-next-leg-ai-trade
The data center boom continues apace, but projects face mounting obstacles. https://www.utilitydive.com/news/the-data-center-boom-continues-apace-but-projects-face-mounting-obstacles/830496/

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